欧洲政经问题讲座
    ‘The problem with Europe’
    Lectures held at Peking University

主讲人：Bob Hancké（伦敦政经欧洲所学者）

时间：10:10 ?C 12:00（4月26日，周四上午）

地点：北京大学政府管理廖凯原楼一层134室

Rethinking EMU
The final lecture analyses EMU and will argue that the political-economic bas is of EMU is considerably more fragile than commonly thought. the argument proceeds in three steps. Despite the official view, the Euro-zone is de facto still an asymmetric monetary arrangement, with Germany (still) at its core. However, in contrast to the situation in the monetary arrangements that preceded it, within EMU Germany is stuck paying a disproportionately high price: outside EMU, German growth could be considerably higher, and its unemployment rate lower. The conventional view on Germany within EMU (ECB and Commission) is that the country needs to deregulate its labour markets and the unemployment will start to fall. Since that is precisely what Germany has been doing since the mid-1990s, this view now no longer seems to hold as much sway, even within the OECD who proclaimed it, as it did ten-fifteen years ago. Under such circumstances, it is farfrom impossible that powerful groups within the German political economy, both Left and Right, start questioning the wisdom of EMU, and that the resentment within the German population over abandoning the Deutschmark in favour of the Euro is organised by these interests. If this happens, the only country that could credibly leave the Euro, might eventually becompelled to do so, and the Euro will be history ?Cpossibly dragging the entire post-war European construction along in its fall.